Analyses

1. Written evidence submitted to the Foreign Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament on 'Iran's Nuclear Programme' on 11 June 2007.

The first section of this report deals with a number of questions related to Iran’s nuclear intentions and Iran’s obligations under the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and the related safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The five questions addressed in this section are as follow.

i. What criteria could be used to determine whether Iran has the intention to acquire nuclear weapons?

ii. What have been the main areas of Iran’s non-compliance with its IAEA safeguards?

iii. What have been the main remaining outstanding questions by the IAEA regarding Iran’s nuclear programme by May 2007?

iv. What are the main components of the decision-making process in Iran regarding the nuclear programme?

v. What are the differences between the Security Council Resolution 687 adopted against Iraq in 1991 and the Security Council Resolution 1696, 1737 and 1747 adopted against Iran in 2006 and 2007?

The second part of the report deals with the main technological developments in Iran’s nuclear programme. There are three inter-related questions addressed in this section.

i. How far is Iran from the capability to construct a simple atomic device and to deploy an operational nuclear weapon?

ii. What is the relationship between civil and military aspects of Iran’s nuclear programme?

iii. Could Iran’s uranium enrichment programme be used only for producing fuel in civil nuclear reactors?

The third part of this report provides an overview of Iran’s nuclear programme within the global context of the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The five main questions addressed in this section are as follow.

i. In which manner have the expectations put on the role and objective of the NPT and IAEA Safeguards evolved historically, and what impact have those changes had on the current dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme?

ii. In what circumstances would Iran more likely to withdraw from the NPT?

iii. What has been the role of Iran in the NPT related export control measures, agreements and proposals between 1970 and 2007?

iv. Why have the United Kingdom and the United States been reluctant to provide a legally binding and unconditional security assurances to Iran and other non-nuclear weapon states?

v. What are the key obstacles as well as common interests in the diplomatic negotiations to reach an agreement between Iran and the P5+1?

The last section of the report provides two appendices.

i. Appendix I: Chronology of the Main Events in the Procurement of Iran’s Centrifuge and Uranium Enrichment Technology between 1985-2007.

ii. Appendix II: Chronology of the Main Events in the Negotiations Between Iran and the Three European Countries, France, Germany and the United Kingdom (E3) between October 2003 and May 2006, and between Iran and the P5+1 between 6 June 2006 and 31 May 2007.

For a copy of this report please follow either the link at publication section of the United Kingdom's parliament or contact the author at



2. Interview with the BBC Radio 4, Today programme, on Iran's nuclear programme, the threat of Iran's withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), and possible further sanctions by the United Nations Security Council, broadcast at 6:55 a.m. on Friday 30 November 2007. To listen to the analysis in this interview please follow the website link to the Audio Archive of the Today programme.

3. Paper submitted to the Iraq Commission in the United Kingdom on 22 June 2007 with the title of 'Should the United Kingdom and the United States withdraw their military forces from Iraq, and how the withdrawal could be achieved without worsening the exisiting levels of chaos and violence in the country, or increasing the possibility of collapse of the Iraqi state apparatus or a regional war involving the neighbouring countries of Iraq?' For a copy of this paper please either follow the link in the Iraq's Commission's website or contact the author at



4. Three articles in the Oxford University Press publication of the International Encyclopaedia of Peace on the topics of 'Arms Control and Disarmament: Theory,' 'Arms Control and Disarmament: Negotiations,' and 'Unilateral Nuclear Weapons Disarmament: Policy,'.

5.The paper on 'The Clash of Ideologies or Peaceful Multilateral Negotiations Based on National Interests: the Degree of Iran’s Commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT)', presented on 11 May 2005 at the 2005 Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at the United Nations in New York, 2-27 May 2005 by Elahe Mohtasham. For a copy of this paper please see the page on this website 'The NPT 2005'.

6. The paper on 'Nuclear Weapons Non-Proliferation in the Middle East and South Asia: Issues and Policy Recommendations'. For the text of this presentation at the Third Session of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2005 Review Conference of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at the United Nations in New York, 26 April-7 May 2004 by Elahe Mohtasham, please see the page on this website through the following link: 'The NPT PrepCom 2004'.

7. The Paper on 'Programme to Promote Participation in the NPT Compliance'. For the text of this presentation at the Second Session of the Preparatory Committee (PrepCom) for the 2005 Review Conference of the States Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) at the United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland, 28April-9 May 2003 by Elahe Mohtasham, please see the page on this website through the following link: 'The NPT PrepCom 2003.'

The other sections of this website are currently under construction, and it is hoped to be ready by September 2010.The following areas would be covered on these pages.

1 . The Nuclear International Safeguards System & Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT): This section would be on the evolution of the nuclear international safeguards system and the NPT (1939-2003), including the text of the NPT.

2. Arms Control in the Middle East: This section would cover the history of arms control proposals for the Middle East.

3. North Korea: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in North Korea.

4. South Korea: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in South Korea.

5. Iran: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in Iran.

6. Iraq: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in Iraq.

7. India: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in India.

8. Pakistan: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in Pakistan.

9. Israel: This section would be on the history of the nuclear power development in Israel.

10. The Five Nuclear Weapon States: This section would provide overall analyses of the early history of the nuclear weapons developments in the five nuclear weapon states, the United States (1939-1953), the former Soviet Union (1939-1953), the United Kingdom (1939-1964), France (1939-1964) and China (1949-1965).


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